Mental models of the future

april 2017

In the last two decades, many academics and practitioners have become frustrated by the failures of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), efficient market hypotheses and all related equilibrium-theories. Inspiration for new approaches has come among others from advances in behavioural economics (Thaler, Shiller, Slovic, Tversky and Kahneman), ideas around fundamental uncertainty (going back to Knight, Keynes and Hayek) supported by new ideas around chaos (Mandelbrot) and complexity theory (Shelling, Holland and Farmer).

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